Pakistan - No Longer Our Ally

Behind The Raymond Davis Fiasco
By Ali K. Chisti
www.military.com
7 March 2011

Raymond Davis, a CIA contractor, was in Lahore on his way back from a routine reconnaissance mission when he was intercepted by ISI operatives. Davis has said that he thought he was being robbed and he shot the gun-toting operatives in self-defense. The issue, which could have been one of simple diplomatic immunity has escalated to the point that Senator John Kerry had to come to Pakistan to in an attempt to rescue Davis.

But all efforts seemed to have gone in vain where; Raymond Davis is still in Pakistan's custody and faces a possible death sentence. Things shifted for the worse as a CIA Station Chief in Islamabad was forced to leave Pakistan for security reasons after the country's foreign office deliberately leaked his name in an unprecedented show of animosity towards the US. And another American security official was recently arrested in Peshawar for visa violations and is awaiting trial.
So why is Pakistan, supposedly one of America's biggest allies in the region, turning against the U.S.?

The increase in drone attacks by the CIA has the biggest turn off for the Pakistani military, which is also aggressively pushing for cooperation with the al Qaeda linked Haqqani network as part of their plan of Strategic Depth in Afghanistan. In Oman, where both nations' military chiefs met last week, the Pakistanis asked for drone technology and the list of all CIA staffers in Pakistan in return for seeing to the release of Davis, which shows the widening trust deficit between the two "allies."

Unfortunately the issue cannot easily be resolved. The underlying fact is that Pakistan and the United States have interests in the region that collide. Pakistan, in many ways a proxy of China, is concerned with India more than anything else, while the U.S. is increasingly stepping up against China (the biggest investors in Pakistan's defense industry) by opting to support India.

Al Qaeda may be history in terms of logistical and operational clout, however there are emerging terror threats. Tahreek-e-Taliban-e-Pakistani are growing along with the Pakistani Taliban, which orchestrated the recent CIA forward base suicide bombing. While the war might be in Afghanistan the war rooms are in sovereign and nuclear Pakistan where anti-Americanism stands at 70-80 percent.

In the meantime the U.S. has to deal with the blackmailing Pakistani security establishment while trying to support whatever stabilizing force in the country that can be packaged as "democracy."

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Will Middle Eastern Democracies be Friends or Foes?

Will Middle Eastern Democracies be Friends or Foes?

Citing the Reichstag fire just one month after to solidify his grip on power, Hitler shredded the constitution and outlawed all other political parties. Six years later WWII began, costing some 60 million lives

The Americano
By J.D. Gordon
25 Feb 2011

Many in the West have cheered the prospect of Western-style democracies taking hold in the Mid-East, siding with protest movements that have toppled autocratic regimes in Egypt and Tunisia while spreading like dominoes to Yemen, Bahrain, Jordan, Libya and Algeria.

That’s a natural reaction, given the fact that democracies have yielded successful outcomes in Western societies and embodied the concepts of life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness.

However, a closer look at existing social conditions in the Middle East and North Africa, combined with a quick glance at some past “democracies” ought to give one pause.

In condemning violent crackdowns, United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights Navi Pillay cited the root of anger as, “decades of neglect of people’s aspirations to realize not only civil and political rights, but also economic, social and cultural rights.”

While true, it doesn’t address why there has been so much neglect of people’s aspirations. As if a sudden switch to democracy might fix everything?

Realistically speaking, most Middle Eastern and North African countries don’t enjoy the social conditions that would fulfill such needs – regardless of the type government.

There religious leaders wield the type of power and influence over daily lives in ways we haven’t seen in America for centuries. And their standard fare is preaching intolerance, demanding subservience of women, and blaming the West and Israel for all their problems. In a society of devout followers, most people naturally become conditioned to view the West unfavorably, just as public polls show. Truly representative democracies under these circumstances would likely be deeply hostile to U.S. interests.

Those still pushing democracy for the sake of an egalitarian “power to the people” should at least take a look at some case studies. History is full of notionally democratic, yet also deeply troubled societies that do not have happy endings.

For instance:

Germany, 1933 – As the elected leader of the Weimar Republic’s Majority Nazi Party, Adolph Hitler was appointed as Chancellor by octogenarian President Paul von Hindenburg to form a coalition government that would pull Germany out of the Great Depression. Citing the Reichstag fire just one month after to solidify his grip on power, Hitler shredded the constitution and outlawed all other political parties. Six years later WWII began, costing some 60 million lives.

Iran, 1979 – After a pro-democracy movement toppled the U.S.-backed Shah, the Mullahs quickly instituted Sharia Law — legitimized through a national referendum. Declaring that protests against the Ayatollah were the same as protests against God, Iran has ruthlessly suppressed any form of dissent ever since. Dedicated to its nuclear program in pursuit of regional dominance, Iran is just years away from producing the bomb.

Algeria, 1991 – In reaction to centuries of colonization and a few decades of secular yet incompetent autocratic leaders, Algerians elected the Islamic Salvation Front which promised to enact Sharia Law. Seeing the nightmare that unfolded in Iran, Algeria’s Army launched a coup and removed the Islamists from their elected posts. The result? A decade long civil war that killed over 150,000 people.

Venezuela, 1999 – Failing to take power in a coup, Hugo Chavez was elected by a populist movement fed up with poverty and a lack of social mobility. Since then, the murder rate has quadrupled, foreign investment has all but dried up, and chronic food shortages plague the nation.

Gaza, 2006 – Once Palestinians finally had the chance to pick their elected leaders, they chose Hamas, an internationally recognized terrorist organization. Cut off from Western aid, Hamas wasted little time before firing rockets into Israel.

So what can we learn from all this?

First, though democracy may represent the ideal form of government, successful ones must be accompanied by the social conditions that can lead to positive results for its people.

Second, instant democracies in the Middle East and North Africa are most likely to result in highly antagonistic nations, given the prevailing anti-Western sentiments and climate of intolerance. This is particularly true if Islamist parties like the Muslim Brotherhood come to power – either directly via general elections, or through steamrolling political opposition within their respective legislatures.

Navigating this crisis will be difficult for America, even with the wisest policy decisions from Washington. If the current administration’s waffling through the Egyptian chaos gives any indication of things to come, we may be in real trouble.

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J.D. Gordon is a communications consultant to several Washington, DC think tanks and a retired Navy Commander who served in the office of the secretary of defense from 2005 to 2009 as the Pentagon’s spokesman for the Western Hemisphere. For more info: www.jdgordoncommunications.com [1]

Petraeus Cites ‘Impressive’ Progress in Letter to Troops

Petraeus Cites ‘Impressive’ Progress in Letter to Troops

By Karen Parrish
American Forces Press Service

WASHINGTON, Jan. 25, 2011 – Continued hard work will lead to sustained progress in Afghanistan this year, the commander of the International Security Assistance Force there told his troops in a letter dated today.

Army Gen. David H. Petraeus addressed his comments to ISAF’s soldiers, sailors, airmen, Marines, Coast Guardsmen and civilians.

They and their Afghan counterparts “did tremendous work in 2010,” Petraeus wrote, terming their progress “impressive.”

ISAF’s core objective in Afghanistan is to ensure that country never again becomes a sanctuary for al-Qaida or other transnational extremists, Petraeus wrote. Achieving that objective requires “a comprehensive civil-military campaign” aimed at helping Afghanistan develop the ability to secure and govern itself, he added.

Additional ISAF forces, the growth of the Afghan army and police, an increase in the number of civilian partners, and the associated funding to enable it all contributed to 2010’s gains, Petraeus wrote. The effort received a boost, the general noted, when NATO leaders at the alliance’s November summit in Lisbon, Portugal, endorsed Afghan President Hamid Karzai’s goal of Afghan forces taking the security lead throughout his nation by the end of 2014.

Afghan and coalition forces increased security in Kabul, Helmand and Kandahar provinces over 2010, Petraeus wrote, and advanced security conditions in the east, west and north.

“The beginning of Afghan-led reintegration of reconcilable insurgents, and the relentless pace of targeted operations by ISAF and Afghan special operations forces” also aided security growth, Petraeus wrote.

“Now, in fact, the insurgents increasingly are responding to our operations, rather than vice-versa, and there are numerous reports of unprecedented discord among the Quetta Shura, the Taliban senior leadership body,” Petraeus noted.

Progress in Afghanistan over 2010 was not easy, Petraeus acknowledged.

“To the contrary, our successes entailed hard fighting, tough losses, and periodic setbacks. … You had to transition from intense combat to complex stability operations –- and back again –- on innumerable occasions, sometimes on the same day,” he wrote. “Your versatility, skill, determination and courage have truly been the stuff of history.”

Work ahead in 2011 will remain challenging, Petraeus told his troops.

Afghanistan and ISAF forces must extend the security “bubbles” around Kabul and in the east and west of the country, while halting and reversing insurgent advances in the north and northeast, the general wrote. ISAF must also support increased Afghan self-governance and anti-corruption efforts, he added. “We will need to pursue initiatives to ensure that our contracting and procurement activities are part of the solution rather than a continuing part of the problem,” he wrote.

Given the “skill and will” that coalition and Afghan troops have demonstrated over the past year, Petraeus wrote, he is confident they “will prove equal to the difficult tasks that lie ahead.”

Quetta Shura is now Karachi Shura

Quetta Shura is now Karachi Shura
By Ali K Chishti

http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2011\01\20\story_20-1-2011_pg7_8

In the light of recent revelations published by the Washington Post about Mulla Omar, who reportedly suffered a serious cardiac problem and underwent a major operation in Karachi, Daily Times would like to reminds its readers that it was Daily Times that first published a series of reports about certain Arab diplomats and the presence of the members of the Quetta Shura in Karachi.

Karachi, Pakistan’s financial hub, which has been struck by a series of ethnic, political and sectarian killings, which claimed more than 300 lives in the last two months, also happens to be the city where more than two dozens of the top al Qaeda, Taliban and TTP leaders have been caught. The list includes Quetta Shura No. # 2 Mullah Baradar, who only recently was claimed to have been let go for negotiations with other top terrorist leaders. It should also be noted that out of nine supposedly caught Quetta Shura members, five had been caught from Karachi alone.

There had been reports that most of the Afghan Taliban frontier leadership had been sheltered in Karachi under a Pakistani security establishment’s secret programme, the ‘New Karachi Project’. The whole notion that somehow most of the leadership of the Taliban was stationed in Quetta was a “proxy”, a top NATO source told Daily Times. “In reality it's the Karachi Shura.”

Intense investigations reveal that the whole project that initially started as “India centric” has actually taken a global dimension. It was somewhere in 2003, under intense US pressure, that ‘Forward Section 23’ in Azad Kashmir was closed, which provided ‘cover and refugee to top militants’. It was only after the closure of Forward Section 23, the ISI section in Karachi became the hub for anti-India activities from where the Mumbai train bombing to 26/11 were orchestrated. It should be remember that the boat used to travel to Mumbai to carry out the terrorist attack was bought from Karachi as well.

The ‘Karachi Project’ was confirmed by recent revelations from a double agent, David Headley, who had been involved in carrying out the massacre in Mumbai. He said in a recent testimony that he works under the direct supervision of Pakistan’s top intelligence agency, the ISI, which shelters infamous Mumbai mobster Daud Ibrahim to Tiger Memon, to the top tier leadership of the Taliban, which includes Mullah Omar. This explains a top Middle Eastern intelligence official’s secret visit to Karachi, who was actively facilitating the negotiation process between Karzai, the US and the Afghan Taliban. It should be remembered that Mullah Baradar was caught from a Sunni-Deobandi-run religious seminary in Karachi. The seminary, Khudamul Quran, is located 10 to 25kms from the toll plaza on the Super Highway in the jurisdiction of the Lonikot police station in Hyderabad, which is under the influence of Jamaat-e-Islami and the JUI-F, whose leaders had previously been caught sheltering high-profile al Qaeda leaders like Sheikh Khaled Muhammad – the 9/11 mastermind. It is shelters like this particular seminary, along with many other “safe houses”, that are termed as “strategic assets” by the Pakistani security establishment.

The Taliban are known to have moved elements of their command to Karachi to avoid potential US targeting in Predator airstrikes, where Mullah Omar is thought to be in a safe house in Karachi, under the protection of the ISI. Since the beginning of February, the authorities have captured seven senior members of the Taliban Shura, including Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, the deputy of Mullah Omar, and four Taliban shadow governors of Afghan provinces, which include names such as Maulvi Abdul Kabir (shadow governor of Nangarhar province), Mullah Abdul Qayyum Zakir, who used to co-supervise the military affairs of the militia, Mullah Muhammad Hassan, a former foreign minister in the Taliban regime, Mullah Abdul Rauf, the former chief operational commander of the Taliban in northeastern Afghanistan, Mullah Ahmad Jan Akhundzada, the former governor of Zabul province and Mullah Muhammad Younis, an ex-Kabul police chief.